Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images
By Rafael Bandayrel
With roughly half a month left before the postseason tips off, the Western Conference picture is beginning to come into focus.
The top six seeds—Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, and Minnesota Timberwolves—have essentially punched their tickets. Their only concern now is seeding. But just beneath that layer sits the real chaos: a four-team scramble for the final two play-in spots.
Currently, the seventh through 10th seeds are held by the Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Golden State Warriors. And if there’s one thing that could decide who survives this mini-gauntlet, it’s the schedule.
Start with Phoenix, because nothing about their path is forgiving.
Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images
The Suns have arguably the toughest remaining slate in the West: the Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers, and Oklahoma City Thunder. Three of those teams are legitimate contenders, and only Dallas enters with a losing record. For a team trying to hold ground, this stretch feels less like a tune-up and more like survival mode. One bad week, and Phoenix could slide dangerously.
Photo by Jaden Coleman/NBAE via Getty Images
Portland doesn’t have it much easier. The Blazers will face the Denver Nuggets, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers, and Sacramento Kings. That’s two title-caliber squads in Denver and San Antonio, plus a direct competitor in the Clippers who are fighting for the same real estate in the standings.
Portland’s margin for error is razor-thin—they’re not just playing good teams, they’re playing teams with something equally urgent at stake.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Then there are the Clippers, who quietly might hold the most favorable positioning leverage. Their remaining games—against the Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and Golden State Warriors—aren’t exactly a cakewalk, but they’re manageable. Oklahoma City is the clear heavyweight here, yet the rest of the slate presents winnable games. More importantly, two of those matchups come against fellow play-in hopefuls, giving the Clippers a chance to swing the standings directly in their favor.
Photo by Alex Goodlett/NBAE via Getty Images
Golden State—the team that, on paper, has the clearest runway — also deserves to be part of the conversation.
The Warriors close out against the Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings (twice), Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers. Playing Sacramento twice is a gift in this context, and while the Lakers loom as a tough matchup, their situation is far from full strength.
If Golden State takes care of business, this stretch could be the springboard that lifts them out of danger and into a more secure play-in position.
This is where the Western Conference separates not just contenders, but survivors. The Suns are staring at a gauntlet. The Blazers are walking a tightrope. The Clippers have an opportunity knocking.
And the Warriors? They might just have the cleanest path to capitalize.
In a race this tight, it won’t just be about who’s better, it’ll be about who navigates the road ahead with the fewest missteps.